Looking to the Future

As we begin to take our approximately 4-½ billionth trip around the sun, I’m reflecting on the previous 525,600 minutes and looking ahead to the new decade.  The decade (the ‘20’s), by the way, begins this coming January not last January, a factoid noted in a short address by Hiroyuki Hirano in 1999 as the world approached the cyber-perils of Y2K.  After listening to Mr. Hirano explain multiple overwhelming challenges that manufacturing would face in the next century (Y2K was not one of them, by the way), I naively asked him what countermeasures he would recommend to manufacturers.  “Oh,” he quipped, “I tell my friends, don’t go into manufacturing.  It’s just too difficult.” 

What struck me most about this chance meeting with Mr. Hirano was not his flippant answer to my question, however, but rather the decades-long view that he was sharing with the rest us who were mostly focused on much shorter planning horizons.  I was reminded of this tendency to think short-term in March of this year, as planning cycles shrunk still further to months and even weeks.  If anything, 2020 has been a year of tactical maneuvering for most of us; pivoting and adapting to unstable health and economic conditions.  For those who have survived the year, there is reason for celebration and recognition of many herculean efforts to adapt of circumstances beyond our control.

On this account, however, I’m also reminded of Rheinhold Niebuhr’s Serenity Prayer:

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
courage to change the things I can,
and wisdom to know the difference.

I do, for example, anticipate the Earth will complete another revolution around the Sun in 2021 and I also accept the possibility — roughly 1 in 300,000 — that the Earth will be struck by a catastrophic asteroid in the next 365 days.  I believe these events are beyond my control and they don’t affect my sleep.  But a pandemic; or global warming; or contention for scarce resources?  

At a training I attended in 1989 with Ryuji Fukuda on strategic planning, he raised the question regarding things we can change.  Citing a study on rail disasters in Japan, Dr. Fukuda made a compelling case that detailed study of rail disasters had in fact reduced many previously long-standing causes.   Fukuda’s point was that long-term planning should not accept as fait du complis, events that have previously been considered unavoidable.   In fact, all of the countermeasures applied to reduce rail disasters were “small changes for the better.”  Kaizen.   I humbly assert that same can be said of the impending threats like pestilence, climate change and scarcity. 

So why does it seem so difficult to address these problems?  In the words of Taiichi Ohno, “No problem is a problem.”  That we’ve spent the last year turning a blind eye to science regarding Covid-19 is not atypical; it’s a legacy dating back to Galileo. (He was excommunicated from the Church for suggesting the earth is not the center of the universe.)   Decades of science denial surrounding future livability on the planet, is far far more damaging, just not as immediate.  It seems that when consequences are not directly in front of us, we can’t see them. We’re quick to accept the technical solutions that science brings us, such as a vaccine, but slow to accept the personal sacrifices that come with adaptive change, like wearing a mask or using a recycling bin.   In the words of W. Edwards Deming, “emphasis on short-term profits” (start the video at 3:30) is the root cause of this blindness.  Organizations, including our government, may espouse long term strategies, but behavior is based primarily on quarterly earnings.  Profits over everything, “no matter what,” as Deming said.   

So, with total respect to Rheinhold Niebuhr, I’ll offer a 21st century adaptation of his 1932 work as a wish for everyone in 2021 and beyond.   Call it the Sanity Prayer:

God, grant me the sanity to accept the things I cannot change,
the long-term thinking and courage to change the things I should,
and wisdom to know the difference.

Happy New Decade Everyone!

O.L.D.

Hey!  Save the date:  April 1, 2021.  No joke.  GBMP is sponsoring a Continuous Improvement road trip, featuring best practices at eight different workplaces including production, admin, healthcare and services.  But this road trip requires no driving.  We’ll take you, to the floor for direct observation as well as Q&A with team members.  Mark your calendars.  More to come. 

4 thoughts on “Looking to the Future

  1. Steven Piscopiello

    This is a very interesting post that makes me question how and why people think when a problem occurs. As 2020 was a tough year for many people, our government has these long term plans to control the affect of the virus and but fail to think in the short term. I question why we so easily except science solutions as a society, using the vaccine as an example. But we cannot accept the sacrifices that come with change. Many do not live by the serenity prayer because we do not have the courage to change the things we can.

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  2. Will Cavaliere

    I found this post very insightful and it honestly gave me a sense of calmness while reading it. I like how you outline and express that there are so many things that we have to worry about in our world, but one of the most important is the ever growing concern of climate change. As I approach graduation, I am looking for a job in supply chain, but also want to have the opportunity to research alternative packaging materials and improve operational and transportation processes so that they are environmentally friendly and leave a positive impact on the environment. I want to ask you what you think the biggest environmental hazard the supply chain/logistics industry produces? Thank you I really enjoyed this post!

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  3. Brett Dolan

    Great Post again OLD!

    I think it is very important to not lose sight of the long-term goal, even when focused with things that require us to think in the short term (i.e. Covid). I also liked how you like to focus on only things within your control like how you accepted the idea that in this next year the Earth could get struck by an asteroid and there is nothing we can do about it. Lastly, I thought it was great that you mentioned the concern of climate change. Going into the Supply Chain field, I have always been worried that I would be contributing to this rapid climate change through the factories I may work with and wondered if it would be within my control to help combat the changing climate. What steps do you think the Supply Chain Industry as a whole has to take in order to combat this evergrowing problem?

    Thanks once again for thee great read.

    Reply
  4. Casey Milder - Green Belt

    I like to live in the moment for most parts of my life but to think about long-term is extremely important. another important point you bring about is to focus on things only we can control, which can be hard for many people to gasp because they think planning for the future is what they can control but sometimes things happen and there is no control. Also to your point with the pandemic, I agreed when someone see that a scientist has “proven” something everyone thinks its law even though it could be completely wrong. amongst many issues that have disrupted the supply chain would you say that the global pandemic was the biggest disruptor?

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